International Journal of Agriculture, Environment and Biotechnology
Citation: IJAEB: 8(2): 303-308 June 2015
DOI Number: 10.5958/2230-732X.2015.00037.6
©2015 New Delhi Publishers. All rights reserved
AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS
Time Series Modeling for Trend Analysis and
Forecasting Wheat Production of India
RameshȱDasyam 1* ,ȱSoumenȱPal 2 ,ȱVatluriȱSrinivasaȱRao 3 ȱandȱ
BanjulȱBhattacharyya 1
1 Department of Agricultural Statistics, Bidhan Chandra Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Mohanpur, West Bengal-741252, India.
2 Division of Computer Applications, ICAR- IASRI, New Delhi, India.
3 Department of Statistics and Mathematics, ANGRAU, Bapatla, Andhra Pradesh, India.
* Corresponding author: dasyam.ramesh32@gmail.com
Paper No. 321
Received: 22 August 2014
Accepted: 26 April 2015
Published: 29 June 2015
Abstract
Wheatȱisȱoneȱofȱtheȱmostȱimportantȱstapleȱfoodȱgrainsȱofȱhumanȱforȱcenturies.ȱItȱhasȱaȱspecialȱplaceȱinȱ
theȱIndianȱeconomyȱbecauseȱofȱitsȱsignificanceȱinȱfoodȱsecurity,ȱtradeȱandȱindustry.ȱThisȱstudyȱmadeȱ
anȱattemptȱtoȱmodelȱandȱforecastȱtheȱproductionȱofȱwheatȱinȱIndiaȱbyȱusingȱannualȱtimeȱseriesȱdataȱ
fromȱ1961-2013.ȱParametricȱregression,ȱexponentialȱsmoothingȱandȱAutoȱRegressiveȱIntegratedȱMovingȱ
Averageȱ(ARIMA)ȱmodelsȱwereȱemployedȱandȱcomparedȱforȱfindingȱoutȱanȱappropriateȱeconometricȱ
modelȱtoȱcaptureȱtheȱtrendȱofȱwheatȱproductionȱofȱtheȱcountry.ȱTheȱbestȱfittedȱmodelȱwasȱselectedȱbasedȱ
onȱtheȱperformanceȱofȱseveralȱgoodnessȱofȱfitȱcriteriaȱviz.ȱRootȱMeanȱSquaredȱErrorȱ(RMSE),ȱMeanȱ
AbsoluteȱPercentageȱErrorȱ(MAPE),ȱMeanȱAbsoluteȱErrorȱ(MAE),ȱMeanȱSquaredȱErrorȱ(MSE),ȱAkaikeȱ
InformationȱCriterionȱ(AIC),ȱSchwarz’sȱBayesianȱInformationȱCriterionȱ(SBC)ȱandȱR-squaredȱvalues.ȱ
Theȱassumptionsȱofȱ‘Independence’ȱandȱ‘Normality’ȱofȱerrorȱtermsȱwereȱexaminedȱbyȱusingȱtheȱ‘Run-
test’ȱandȱ‘Shapiro-Wilkȱtest’ȱrespectively.ȱThisȱstudyȱfoundȱARIMAȱ(1,1,0)ȱasȱmostȱappropriateȱtoȱmodelȱ
theȱwheatȱproductionȱofȱIndia.ȱTheȱforecastedȱvalueȱbyȱusingȱthisȱmodelȱwasȱobtainedȱasȱ100.271ȱmillionȱ
tonesȱ(MT)ȱbyȱ2017-18.
Highlights
forȱselectingȱbestȱfittedȱmodel.
Keywords: Regression,ȱnormality,ȱexponentialȱsmoothing,ȱARIMA
Theȱ shareȱ ofȱ wheatȱ inȱ theȱ Indianȱ foodgrainȱ inȱtheȱworldȱtrade.ȱIndiaȱhasȱwitnessedȱaȱsubstantialȱ
productionȱisȱaroundȱ35.5%ȱandȱitȱcomprisesȱaboutȱ changeȱinȱtheȱpastȱ4-5ȱdecadesȱwithȱtheȱoverallȱwheatȱ
22%ȱofȱtheȱtotalȱareaȱunderȱfoodȱgrains.ȱChinaȱandȱ productionȱ increasingȱ atȱ aȱ Compoundedȱ Annualȱ
Indiaȱ areȱ theȱ topȱ twoȱ wheatȱ producingȱ countriesȱ Growthȱ Rateȱ (CAGR)ȱ ofȱ 4.22%ȱ duringȱ 1960-2010.ȱ
accountingȱforȱoverȱ30%ȱshareȱinȱworldȱproduction,ȱ TheȱproductionȱofȱwheatȱinȱIndiaȱatȱtheȱsameȱtime,ȱ
however,ȱtheȱtopȱtwoȱproducersȱareȱalsoȱtheȱmajorȱ increasedȱ fromȱ 11ȱ MTȱ inȱ 1960-61ȱ toȱ 80.8ȱ MTȱ inȱ
consumersȱofȱwheatȱandȱhaveȱaȱveryȱsmallȱpresenceȱ 2010-11.ȱ Indiaȱ producedȱ closeȱ toȱ aȱ recordȱ 94.8ȱ MTȱ