Dasyam et al.
upcomingȱ years.ȱ Boxȱ andȱ Jenkinsȱ methodologyȱ ofȱ
univariateȱ ARIMAȱ modelȱ hasȱ beenȱ selectedȱ asȱ anȱ
appropriateȱ econometricȱ modelȱ thanȱ traditionalȱ
parametricȱregressionȱandȱHoltȱsmoothingȱmodels.ȱ
ARIMAȱ (1,1,0)ȱ wasȱ foundȱ asȱ mostȱ appropriateȱ
amongȱotherȱARIMAȱmodelsȱandȱhenceȱemployedȱ
inȱforecastingȱwheatȱproductionȱofȱIndia.ȱFromȱtheȱ
forecastedȱ values,ȱ itȱ canȱ beȱ concludedȱ thatȱ forȱ aȱ
fewȱcomingȱyearsȱproductionȱofȱwheatȱwillȱfollowȱ
anȱ increasingȱ trendȱ andȱ itȱ hasȱ beenȱ estimatedȱ asȱ
100.271ȱMTȱforȱtheȱyearȱ2017-18.ȱTheseȱprojectionsȱ
canȱplayȱvitalȱroleȱtoȱdealȱwithȱfutureȱfoodȱsecurityȱ
measuresȱandȱplanningȱforȱpolicyȱmakersȱinȱIndia.
Figure 5. Histogram for Residuals of ARIMA (1,1,0)
Finally,ȱincreasingȱagricultureȱfunding,ȱselectionȱofȱ
Table 8. Forecasting of Wheat production with control
highȱ yieldingȱ varietiesȱ andȱ enhancingȱ relationshipȱ
limits
betweenȱ farmersȱ andȱ researchȱ workersȱ mayȱ
Absolute
beȱ importantȱ factorsȱ inȱ sustainingȱ thisȱ trendȱ ofȱ
Predicted
UCL
LCL
Actual
Year
Forecast
productionȱforȱlongȱterm.
(MT)
(MT)
(MT)
(MT)
Error
2011-12
88.414
97.059
83.769 86.874
0.0177
References
2012-13 92.696
100.179
84.613 94.880
0.0230
Boxȱ GEȱ andȱ Jenkinsȱ GMȱ 1976.ȱ Timeȱ Seriesȱ Analysis:ȱ
2013-14 93.843
103.128
84.557 93.510
0.0035
ForecastingȱandȱControl.ȱHoldenȱDay,ȱSanȱFrancisco.
2014-15 95.498
105.891
85.105
Dickeyȱ DAȱ andȱ Fullerȱ WAȱ 1979.ȱ Distributionȱ ofȱ estimatorsȱ
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2015-16 97.072
108.530
85.614
of the American Statistical Association 74 427-431.ȱ doi:ȱ
2016-17 98.678
111.086
86.269
10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
2017-18 100.271
113.571
86.971
Gaynorȱ PEȱ andȱ Kirkpatrickȱ RCȱ 1994.ȱ Introductionȱ toȱ
timeȱ seriesȱ modellingȱ andȱ forecastingȱ inȱ businessȱ andȱ
Byȱ usingȱ ARIMAȱ (1,1,0),ȱ itȱ wasȱ observedȱ thatȱ theȱ
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andȱpredictedȱvaluesȱwereȱwithinȱcontrolȱlimitsȱasȱ
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capturedȱinȱFigureȱ6.
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McȱGrawȱHill,ȱNewȱDelhi.
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Aȱstochasticȱmodelȱapproach.ȱ Recent Research in Science and
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Figure 6. Forecasting of wheat production by ARIMA (1,1,0)
Sonawaneȱ A,ȱ Hasanȱ M,ȱ Rajwadeȱ Y,ȱ Desaiȱ S,ȱ Rajurkarȱ G,ȱ
Conclusion
Shindeȱ V,ȱ Singhȱ Dȱ andȱ Singhȱ Mȱ 2013.ȱ Comparisonȱ ofȱ
Neuro-Fuzzyȱ andȱ Regressionȱ Modelsȱ forȱ Predictionȱ ofȱ
Presentȱ studyȱ madeȱ anȱ attemptȱ towardsȱ shortȱ
Outflowȱ ofȱ on-farmȱ Reservoir.ȱ International Journal of
termȱ predictionȱ ofȱ wheatȱ productionȱ inȱ Indiaȱ forȱ
Agriculture, Environment and Biotechnology 6 :311-316.
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