Shukla et al.

TimeȱSeriesȱforecastingȱmethodsȱparticularlyȱANNȱ (Shepherdȱ 1968)ȱ andȱ Splineȱ (Schoenbergȱ 1973)ȱ

methodsȱ haveȱ beenȱ developedȱ whenȱ conventionalȱ becauseȱpredictionȱestimatesȱtendȱtoȱbeȱlessȱbiasedȱ

statisticalȱmethodsȱcouldȱnotȱgiveȱsatisfactoryȱresultsȱ andȱ alsoȱ becauseȱ predictionsȱ areȱ accompaniedȱ byȱ

dueȱtoȱrestrictiveȱassumptionsȱincorporatedȱinȱtheseȱ predictionȱ standardȱ errorsȱ (quantificationȱ ofȱ theȱ

methodsȱ (Mishraȱ andȱ Singhȱ 2013,ȱ Kumariȱ et ȱ al.ȱ uncertaintyȱinȱtheȱpredictedȱvalue).

2013,ȱ2014a,ȱ2014b,ȱ2014c).ȱStudyȱconductedȱunderȱ

Theȱ objectiveȱ ofȱ theȱ presentȱ studyȱ wasȱ toȱ developȱ

GPSȱ andȱ GISȱ basedȱ soilȱ fertilityȱ mappingȱ projectȱ

theȱmodelȱforȱestimatingȱ(MishraȱandȱPandeyȱ1992)ȱ

revealedȱthatȱsoilsȱofȱVaranasiȱdistrictȱareȱdeficientȱ

theȱ valueȱ ofȱ deficientȱ micronutrientsȱ atȱ differentȱ

inȱmicronutrientsȱnamelyȱZnȱ(46%),ȱBȱ(37%)ȱandȱFeȱ

locationsȱ inȱ Kashiȱ Vidyapeethȱ blockȱ ofȱ Varanasiȱ

(15%)ȱ (Singhȱ 2012).ȱ Obviously,ȱ estimatingȱ (Pandeyȱ

district,ȱUttarȱPradeshȱ(India)ȱbyȱknowingȱtheȱvalueȱ

andȱMishraȱ1991)ȱtheȱcontentȱofȱsoilȱmicronutrientsȱ

ofȱmicronutrientsȱinȱsampledȱlocationsȱandȱtoȱstudyȱ

inȱparticularȱareaȱcanȱbeȱprovedȱhighlyȱbeneficialȱinȱ

andȱmapȱtheȱspatialȱvariabilityȱofȱmicronutrientsȱbyȱ

guidingȱtheȱfarmers,ȱmanufacturersȱandȱplannersȱinȱ

usingȱtheȱKrigingȱInterpolationȱmethod.

ascertainingȱtheȱrequirementȱofȱvariousȱfertilizersȱinȱ

makingȱprojectionsȱforȱincreasedȱrequirementȱbasedȱ

Materials and Methods

onȱ croppingȱ patternȱ andȱ intensityȱ (Bellȱ andȱ Dellȱ

2006).ȱ Therefore,ȱ presentȱ studyȱ wasȱ carriedȱ outȱ toȱ Study Area

provideȱaȱreliableȱestimateȱofȱmicronutrientsȱstatusȱ

inȱsoilȱinȱorderȱtoȱcontrolȱdirectȱandȱindirectȱlossesȱ

Thisȱstudyȱcoversȱanȱareaȱofȱ15896ȱhaȱlocatedȱinȱKashiȱ

ofȱsoilȱhealth,ȱcropȱproductionȱandȱhumanȱhealthȱtoȱ

VidyapeethȱblockȱofȱVaranasiȱdistrict,ȱUttarȱPradeshȱ

takeȱpriorȱactionȱforȱfuture.

(India).ȱ Varanasiȱ liesȱ inȱ theȱ middleȱ Gangesȱ valleyȱ

ofȱ Northȱ India,ȱ inȱ theȱ Easternȱ partȱ ofȱ theȱ stateȱ ofȱ

Geostatisticsȱhasȱbeenȱprovedȱtoȱbeȱoneȱofȱtheȱmostȱ UttarȱPradeshȱ(shownȱinȱFigureȱ1).ȱTheȱgeographicalȱ

effectiveȱmethodsȱinȱanalysingȱtheȱspatialȱvariabilityȱ coordinatesȱofȱtheȱareaȱareȱbetweenȱ25°16’55.2″ȱnorthȱ

ofȱ soilȱ featuresȱ (Tekinȱ et al. ȱ 2011).ȱ Theȱ precisionȱ latitudeȱ andȱ 82057’22.68″ȱ eastȱ latitude.ȱ Varanasiȱ

agriculture,ȱ therefore,ȱ largelyȱ dependsȱ uponȱ theȱ liesȱ inȱ “UP-7ȱ Easternȱ Plainȱ Zone”ȱ agroȱ climaticȱ

managementȱ ofȱ spatialȱ variabilityȱ inȱ soilȱ fertilityȱ zone.ȱ Theȱ geographicalȱ areaȱ ofȱ VaranasiȱDistrictȱisȱ

whichȱisȱaȱmajorȱproductionȱconstraintȱ(Srivastavaȱ et

approximatelyȱ 1530ȱ sq.ȱ kilometres,ȱ totalȱ croppedȱ

al. ȱ2010).ȱInȱGISȱmethod,ȱweȱcanȱapplyȱdifferentȱspatialȱ areaȱ(‘000ȱha)ȱisȱ157.096ȱ(www.agricoop.nic.in).

interpolationȱ methods.ȱ Geostatisticalȱ interpolationȱ

techniquesȱ areȱ basedȱ onȱ statisticsȱ andȱ areȱ usedȱ

forȱ moreȱ advancedȱ predictionȱ surfaceȱ modellingȱ

thatȱ alsoȱ includesȱ someȱ measureȱ ofȱ theȱ certaintyȱ

orȱ accuracyȱ ofȱ predictions.ȱ Krigingȱ interpolationȱ

(Krigeȱ 1951)ȱ hasȱ beenȱ consideredȱ oneȱ ofȱ theȱ bestȱ

efficientȱspatialȱinterpolationȱapproachesȱforȱspatialȱ

estimation.ȱ Inȱ thisȱ methodȱ surroundingȱ knownȱ

valuesȱ areȱ takenȱ asȱ weightsȱ andȱ theseȱ weightsȱ areȱ

basedȱnotȱonlyȱonȱtheȱdistanceȱbetweenȱtheȱknownȱ

pointsȱ andȱ theȱ unmeasuredȱ pointȱ butȱ alsoȱ onȱ theȱ

overallȱgeostatisticalȱrelationshipsȱamongȱtheȱknownȱ

points.ȱKrigingȱisȱcapableȱofȱproducingȱaȱpredictionȱ

surfaceȱ andȱ alsoȱ providingȱ someȱ measureȱ ofȱ theȱ

certaintyȱ ofȱ theȱ predictions.ȱ Itȱ isȱ anȱ improvementȱ

overȱ otherȱ spatialȱ interpolationȱ methodsȱ viz.ȱ IDWȱ

Figure 1: Map of Varanasi District

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