Economic Affairs March 2020

Agriculture occupies the most prominent position in Himachal Pradesh, as it is the mainstay of more than 69 per cent of the state’s population. Since the state is exposed to constraints such as shrinking land holdings coupled with perceptible changes in weather and climate, protected cultivation has emerged as the best alternative for using land and other resources efficiently. The main aim of this technology is to enhance the socio-economic conditions of the farmers. Therefore, the present study was conducted to analyse the cropping pattern, production and productivity of major crops being cultivated under protected conditions and to study its impact in crop productivity, employment and income (farm income and total household income) generation and income variability. In order to have a better insight, the factors under consideration were compared to the open-field conditions. The study is based on primary data collected through survey method for the agricultural year 2015-16. The data had been collected from 60 tomato (30 open-field and 30 polyhouse) growers, selected through proportional allocation method from Kangra District of Himachal Pradesh. The study revealed that protected cultivation had a significant impact in enhancing the crop productivity and was approximately three times higher in comparison to the open-field conditions. The labour utilization pattern on protected cultivation was found to be almost four times higher than that of the open- field cultivation indicating a significant contribution in enhancing the employment opportunities. The average farm and household income of the protected growers was observed to be increased by about 25 and 11 per cent, respectively with the adoption of protected technology in the study area. The income variability of the protected growers was also found to be less in comparison to the open-field growers indicating lesser risk and higher stability of income generated by the protected growers in the study area. Therefore, it can be concluded that protected cultivation has a significantly positive impact in improving the socio-economic conditions of the farmers in the study area and suits well to the agro-climatic conditions prevailing in the hilly areas like Himachal Pradesh.

Potato is an integral part of the global food system and the world’s number one non food grain commodity. During 2018-19 potato acreage in India was 21.84 lakh ha with a production of 52.58 million tonnes. Major potato growing states are Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab. Prices of potato exhibit both inter-year and intra-year variations. This price fluctuation in potato is a major concern among farmers, consumers and policy makers. The current study is an attempt to analyze the behavior of prices and arrivals of potato in the major markets of India. The time series data on the price and arrivals of potato in the major markets of leading producing states were collected from Agmarknet. The data corresponding to the potato prices in future market were collected from MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.) where it has been traded till 2014. The prices of potato significantly increased over the last ten years compounded annually in all the selected markets. Significant positive growth rate of arrivals was found in Agra and Ahmadabad markets and negative growth rate was found in Jalandhar market. The price and arrivals series have shown significant negative correlation in all the markets. Seasonal indices depict that prices of potato are usually high during the months of October to December and starts declining till April which is in par with the post harvest period of the crop. Price discovery of potato is a complex process and is affected by a number of factors like production, total arrivals, lagged price, future prices, which have been quantified here and other factors like transportation, storage, weather uncertainties and pests and disease attack.

Non-timber forest products (NTFPs) income plays an important role in the household economy in the rural forest dwelling communities. The study utilised both the primary data and secondary data. Primary data were collected from 30 sample households from two villages in Ri-Bhoi district of Meghalaya to analysis the significant of NTFPs income in the rural household economy with the objectives, (i) To study the determinants of income generation through NTFP (ii) To estimate the extent of employment generation through NTFP (iii) Price behaviour of selected NTFP in Mawiong regulated market. Econometric model and Box-Jenkins Autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) methodology were applied for the study. The study found that income from business was the major income sources (45.74 % share to the total household income). Income from NTFPs collection has the second largest share with 22.05 per cent followed by crop production with 14.61 per cent, labour with 9.16 per cent and livestock with 8.44 per cent. The lin-log model was selected as best model based on the value of R² value (0.89). Years of experience, total hours spent in NTFPs collection and average land holding have positive and significant relationship with the NTFPs income while age and distance travelled has a negative and significant association with it. Broom grass and Tezpatta contribute 2 and 1 manday/qtl/year to the total NTFPs employment. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was the best fitted model as it has the lowest Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC). The price of Broom grass was forecasted for five weeks from 4th week of November to 4th week of December 2018 using ARIMA (0, 1, 1). The forecast Broom grass price for 4th week of November to be ` 2891.66 /qtl which will decrease to ` 2687.46 in 4th week of December.

The study has assessed the impact of rural-urban migration by comparing migrant and non-migrant households in the Tiruppur district of Tamil Nadu. In this connection, a purposive sampling technique was used to select 80 migrant and 80 non-migrant respondents from the study region. Moreover, the study was employed decomposition analysis to understand the income difference between two groups with respect to migration. The estimated result shows that 65.35 percent of the income difference between migrant and non-migrant households due to migration. Also, noticed that comparatively migrants experience a better standard of living along with savings due to higher income and they did not have an idea of returning to agriculture. However, migration is an indication of unequal development of rural and urban which could be minimized by improvising rural living standards by creating employment opportunities, motivating entrepreneurship activities, supporting farming community with special reference to small and marginal farmers.

Increasing consumption of synthetic chemical fertilizers played a great role in alleviating hunger but has also resulted in some adverse effects on natural resources like disaster in soil quality and conceivable outcomes of water pollution. Due to these unfavorable effects, emphasis is being laid on alternate forms of agriculture that are more sustainable. The development of  bioinoculant  with multi-crop growth promoting activities is most important for  sustenance of agriculture. Instead of being financially viable and eco-accommodating in nature, a few imperatives incorporate temperamental supplies and non-appearance of appropriate quality control limit the application or execution of the innovation. In the present review status, use and major manufacturer /industries involved for production of bioinoculants in India has been presented. The total number of units including public, private and cooperatives estimated to be 297. Maharashtra is having the highest number of private companies (68) followed by Gujarat (56) while Tamil Nadu have the highest number public sector units (7) and Delhi is having highest number of co-operatives units (3). Production data (carrier base in MT) revealed that Gujarat (6575 MT) topped the list first followed by Madhya Pradesh and Karnatka (2589.9 MT) during 2016-17. Zone wise bio-fertilizer production in India during the same period is highest in Karnatka both in carrier based formulation (31553.06 MT) and liquid based formulation (993.443 KL).

The objective of present study was to analyse the behaviour of onion prices in Kurnool market and forecasting the prices for the future. Based on secondary data from January 2003 to December 2017, the future prices were predicted for the months of January to June, 2018 by employing the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) technique. The annual increase in prices of onion in Kurnool market was observed to be ` 6.22 per quintal per annum. The highest seasonal index was observed in the month of August and lowest seasonal index was recorded in May. Price cycles were not identified in onion prices. Maximum R-Square (62.34), minimum Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) (34.96), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) (454.71) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) (263.19) was used as a criteria to select the best model for price forecasting. Based on the above criteria the model (1,1,1) (1,1,1) was found to fit the time series to predict future prices. The forecasted price of onion would be ranging from ` 2956 to ` 1651 per quintal for the months from January to June 2018 respectively.

The existence of large yield and technological gaps in different crops is a major problem faced by Indian agriculture. Potato being the most important vegetable of the country, also faces similar problem where actual yields are far below the potential yield. This study was attempted to analyze the yield and technological gap in potato production in Bihar. Data was collected from 90 farmers of Vaishali and Saran districts of Bihar using a structured interview schedule. The results revealed that the overall yield gap of 43.4 per cent existed in potato production in sampled area, which was largely due to the wide scale adoption of a local red skinned potato variety, Bhura aloo. The yield gap was maximum for marginal farmers (48.57%) followed by small farmers. Intensity of adoption was highest for this local variety i.e. Bhura aloo (33.01%) followed by Kufri Sindhuri (27.7%), Kufri Pukhraj (12.64%), Kufri Jyoti (6.83%) and Lal Gulab (5.53%). Large technological gap was observed with respect to the use of recommended dose of NPK fertilizers and pesticides by the farmers. Overall gap in input use per unit area was highest in case of potassium fertilizer (35.4%) followed by nitrogenous fertilizers (27.6%). This yield and technological gaps can be bridged by motivating and supporting farmers to adopt high yielding improved varieties and provision of effective extension services to enable farmers to use recommended level of fertilizers and pesticides.

The present investigation was carried out in three districts of Andhra Pradesh viz., Chittoor (from Rayalaseema region), East Godavari (from Coastal region) and Srikakulam (from North Coastal region) during 2016-18. About 63 types of enterprises being run by 240 entrepreneurs depending upon availability of natural resources and demand in the local area coming to a total of 286 enterprises. Provision shop (16.08%) was the main choice of the respondents, followed by Tailoring (13.29%), Dairy (6.99%), equal (4.55%) percentage with Small hotel/Tiffin centre and Sarees and dress materials/ Cloth business and Fancy shop (4.20%). One-third (33.22%) of the SHG members running the enterprise with an income range of ` 50,001-1,00,000. Only 0.70 per cent of the SHG members running the enterprise with an income range of ` 5,00,001 and above. More than half (56.99%) of the enterprises being run by the SHG women entrepreneurs were the primary sources of income for their family. There was a significant association between the types of enterprises and scale of enterprise.

The study had assessed the impact assessment of production technology of paddy cultivation in Nasik region of Maharashtra for the year 2016-17, based on the data of costs and returns. Analytical techniques like benefit-cost ratio (BCR), technology adoption index, yield gap, were exercised to have the extent of economic impact of improved paddy technology. High adopter group earned the net profit of ` 2298.09/ha (BCR=1.32) compared to ` 3629.3/ha ( BCR= 1.06) for low adopter group. Average technology adoption index was 71.57 per cent indicating that the farmers adopting recommended production technology of paddy could get yield of 41.63q/ha. Factor share analysis showed that contribution of Char-sutri method to the total yield was the highest yield (i.e. 32.84 per cent) which was followed by urea (19.76 per cent), doses of manures (12.02 per cent), intercultural operation, planting distance, transplanting time contributes about 8.09 per cent etc. respectively. Estimates of yield gap analysis proved existence of yield gap in all level which ranged from 41 percent (low adopter) to 23 percent (high adopter). So, reduction or bridging up the yield gap may be utmost priority to increase the overall production and income of the farmers.

An economic analysis of marketing was done in Jammu region to analyze the efficiency of exchange of flowers from production to consumption side. Primary data were collected from farmers selected through multistage sampling technique and wholesalers and retailers selected randomly from subtropical area of Jammu and Kathua districts in 2017-18. Five marketing channels were found in the study area which were farmer-retailer-consumer, farmer-wholesaler-retailer-consumer, farmer- retailer (pre harvest contract)-consumer, farmer-retailer (farm marketing)-consumer, farmer-consumer in which first 3 were followed by farmers of Jammu district and all 5 were followed in Kathua district. In Jammu district, the most efficient marketing channel was channel III followed by I and II while in Kathua district, channel V was found most efficient followed by channel IV, III, I and II. Major marketing constraints faced by farmers were distant markets followed by lack of regulated markets, lack of market information and high transportation cost.

The existence of the wide range of natural endowment is very much favorable for growing a large array of horticultural crops throughout the country. The country observed a sharper increase in the area of horticultural crops compared to food grains. In the fruit industry, mango stands top in position. Due to perennial nature, the cost and return behavior has been estimated @ 10 percent opportunity cost of capital as like investment appraisal for the interest of development of mango entrepreneurs. The per hectare net present value (NPV), for the entire life period (55 years) of the mango orchard has been found to be ` 600237.34. Benefit-cost ratio is 1.76. The adjusted IRR is also worked out as 19.80 percent, which is sufficiently higher than the opportunity cost of the capital or the rate of interest charged by the financial institutions. The payback period was about 8.2 years. Thus, the evidence reveals that investments in mango orchard are highly profitable, economically feasible and financially viable. To overcome the question of risk and uncertainty in investment over a longer period the usual technique is how sensitive the investment if the cost or return increase/decrease due to economic or other change in the market. Some competing crop performed better in term of benefit-cost ratio, but in terms of average annual net return of ` 36030.60 ha-1 which was evidently higher than that of alternative crops. The mango cultivation is low input intensive as compared to food grain that means fewer requirements of resources for its production. So, we can say mango production is more profitable venture for resource-poor farmers.

The objective of the present study was to analyze the performance of palm industry in Karnataka. The total establishment cost of coconut orchard estimated at ` 1,58,842.82 per acre. The annual cost of cultivation of coconut was ` 55,933.91 per acre. The total cost incurred in copra making from 5,777.65 nuts (a unit from one acre) estimated at ` 69,400.33 and obtained 8.86 quintals of copra. Gross returns obtained from copra making were ` 1,17,265.05. Copra making in the study area is a profitable venture as indicated by B:C ratio (1.68). The study of marketing of copra identified three marketing channels. Producer’s share in consumer’s rupee was highest (75.02%) in channel III (Copra makers - Wholesaler - Retailer –Consumers) than channel I and II and considered as efficient marketing channel in the study area. Majority of the copra makers expressed that drastic climate change lead to decrease in production, fluctuation in price of coconut oil was the major marketing problem. The other problem faced by wholesalers was lack of consistent demand and in case of retailers high cost of transportation was the major problems. The copra manufactured in the study area was of good quality. Hence, efforts should made to export the copra. Government can promote artificial dryer unit under cooperative sector and it can provide financial help to construct proper infrastructure for copra making unit. Creating awareness to encourage online trading for better price realization for producers and better quality is the need of the hour.

The present study measured the energy efficiency at various sizes of farms in relation to their energy use pattern with special reference to wheat and paddy crops in relevance to electricity and fertilizer efficiency, identified the factors responsible for levels of efficiency on Punjab Farms and given the implications for future energy demand scenario and usage pattern in Punjab agriculture. A significant decline in per hectare use of commercial and non- commercial energy with the rise in the level of efficiency was observed. Per hectare use of commercial and non-commercial energy was comparatively low in zone III to zone I and zone II. Per hectare use of both commercial and non-commercial energy was more in paddy crop as expected in comparison to wheat crop. Paddy alone consumes three-fourth of total electricity consumption in agriculture. Only 20 per cent decrease in area under rice cultivation would decrease the energy use to a great extent. So, there is also a need of shifting from present wheat-paddy cropping system to less energy intensive cropping system.

The present study was conducted in Assandh and Karnal Blocks of Karnal district, Haryana which was selected purposively on the basis of maximum production under basmati rice crop. Further, four regulated markets in Karnal district, i.e., Karnal, Gharunda, Assandh and Taraori markets were purposively selected for the market study. The results showed that average prices forecast for the year 2017 to be about Rs. 1567 per quintal with upper and lower limit ` 1567 to 1329 per quintal in Karnal market, ` 1652 per quintal with upper and lower limit ` 1652 to 1259 per quintal in Gharunda market, ` 1667 per quintal with upper and lower limit ` 1667 and 1515 per quintal in Assandh market and ` 1701 per quintal with upper and lower limit ` 1701 to 1680 per quintal in Taraori market, respectively.

The study was conducted in eastern and western zones of Haryana in 2017-18. From eastern zone Kurukshetra and Panipat and from western zone Hisar district were selected on basis of acreage under summer mungbean. The outcomes of production function analysis reveal that there is scope for reorganization of resources used in cultivation of summer mungbean to optimize their use to enhance returns in the study area. In all the districts, the usage of resources which are showing negative production elasticity should be decreased to achieve the resource optimality and the use of resources viewing more than unity production elasticity should be encouraged to enhance the profitability condition. The analysis of constraints in cultivation of summer mungbean as opined by the sampled farmers recite that non-availability of suitable machine for harvesting, non-procurement of produce by Govt. agencies, harvest price less than MSP were recorded as the major constraints in the study area. Keeping in view the findings of the study, it is suggested that there is need to re-orient the usage of resources for attaining higher returns from summer mungbean cultivation, multiplication of short duration varieties seed, need to develop suitable and low cost harvesting machinery and procurement arrangement of produce at MSP.

The present study has been undertaken in three agro-economic zones of Punjab to examine the linkages between the credit source and marketing pattern of farm produce. Multistage random sampling technique was used for the selection of 90 farmers. Inter-linkages between the source of credit and marketing pattern refer to the inter-linkage between farmers and moneylender indulged in trading activities. Majority of the sampled farmers i.e. 65 per cent were found trapped in linked transactions. Participation of medium farmers in linked credit contracts was found to be higher i.e. 72.22 per cent as compared to large (57.14%) and small farmers (51.72%). Credit-input-product inter-linkage emerged as dominant type in the study area i.e. 33.33 per cent followed by credit-product type (31.11 per cent).